Overview
- Ten candidates qualified to file for the June 2 primary—eight Democrats and two Republicans—with Tom Steyer the final filer as of the March 6 deadline.
- The Secretary of State will verify paperwork and publish the certified candidate list by March 21.
- New surveys show shifting leaders: a UC Berkeley–Politico poll puts Steve Hilton at 19% with Tom Steyer at 13% and Eric Swalwell at 11%, while an Emerson College poll also places Hilton and Swalwell near the top.
- A large undecided bloc persists, with 17% to 25% of likely voters not yet committed, keeping the race fluid.
- Modeling by Democratic strategist Paul Mitchell estimates a 27% chance of a Republican‑versus‑Republican November, as party chair Rusty Hicks urges low‑viability Democrats to exit and Ian Calderon drops out to endorse Swalwell.