Overview
- PDI’s snapshot of about 905,889 returned ballots shows Republicans at roughly 37% of early returns, up 11 points from the same point in 2022, while Democrats are at about 41%, down 13 points.
- Raw counts place early Democratic returns near 371,000, Republicans around 335,000, and independents close to 200,000, leaving near-parity despite Democrats’ larger registration edge.
- County snapshots show GOP strength, with Republicans leading by more than 10,000 early ballots in Orange County, posting about 11% turnout to Democrats’ 6% in San Diego County, and logging 4% to Democrats’ 2% in Los Angeles County.
- Older voters dominate the early vote, with the 65-plus group accounting for roughly 54% of returns, and PDI’s Paul Mitchell says Republicans are mailing ballots at pre-2020 rates while some Democrats may be holding ballots to avoid vote-splitting.
- California mails a ballot to every registered voter and advances the top two finishers to November regardless of party, a setup that could reshape crowded races, though analysts stress these early-return snapshots are not forecasts.