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California Billionaire Tax Drive Gains Voter Backing as Opposition Funding Mounts

New polling shows strong support despite Gov. Gavin Newsom’s warnings about revenue risks.

Homes can be seen in a neighborhood in Atherton in 2023. Some have suggested that a proposed tax on California’s billionaires could lead entrepreneurs to pull back from the Bay Area, restricting job growth — and future demand for housing.
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FILE: Michael Moritz attends TechCrunch Disrupt SF 2013 at San Francisco Design Center on Sept. 9, 2013, in San Francisco.
FILE: Michael Moritz speaks onstage during “Finding the Next Billion-Dollar Idea” at Vanity Fair’s New Establishment Summit at Yerba Buena Center for the Arts on Oct. 19, 2016, in San Francisco.

Overview

  • The proposed 2026 Billionaire Tax Act would levy a one-time 5% tax on Californians with net worths above $1 billion, tied to residency on Jan. 1, 2026, with payments due starting in 2027 and eligible to be spread over five years.
  • The initiative has not yet qualified for the ballot and still must gather roughly 875,000 valid signatures, with backers led by SEIU‑UHW pitching the tax as a way to offset federal health-care funding cuts.
  • Polling is mixed but shows notable support, with a Nestpoint survey finding 60% backing that held at 54% after hearing risks, while a Mellman Group poll showed 48% support and 38% opposition.
  • Newsom has intensified his criticism, arguing the one-time levy could shrink the tax base and reduce funding for schools, public safety and other core services without fixing structural budget issues.
  • Opposition financing and maneuvering have escalated, including Sergey Brin’s $20 million and Michael Moritz’s $2 million to a new political group and Peter Thiel’s $3 million to anti-tax efforts, alongside reports of some wealthy residents changing addresses, with legal challenges widely expected if the measure advances.