Overview
- Supporters secured enough valid signatures to place Proposition 40 on the Nov. 3, 2026 ballot and intensified lobbying in Washington, D.C., with public outreach on Friday, July 17.
- The proposal would levy a one‑time 5% tax on worldwide net worth above $1 billion, apply retroactively to Jan. 1, 2026, allow payment over five years with a 7.5% deferral charge, and target roughly 200 to 255 residents and certain trusts.
- Proponents estimate about $100 billion in near‑term revenue, while the nonpartisan Legislative Analyst’s Office said the state would likely collect tens of billions up front but warned that wealthy departures could reduce future revenue by hundreds of millions per year.
- The campaign has split powerful actors: labor union SEIU–United Healthcare Workers West leads backing, Governor Gavin Newsom and major tech donors such as Sergey Brin are funding opposition and rival measures, and some wealthy figures including Jensen Huang and Tom Steyer have expressed support.
- Market odds place passage near 30 to 31 percent and key variables to watch before November include asset valuation rules, enforcement mechanics, potential relocations, federal policy engagement, and likely legal challenges that could shape how much the state actually collects.