Overview
- A James Madison Institute/Targoz poll conducted July 20–26 found Byron Donalds at 49% of likely Republican primary voters, about a 31-point lead over his nearest rival in a survey of 1,400 registered voters with a ±2.62% margin of error.
- The same poll tested general-election matchups and showed Donalds ahead of Democrat David Jolly by roughly 4 points among registered voters and by about 7 points among likely voters.
- David Jolly leads Donalds among independent voters 36% to 19% in the poll and remains the presumptive Democratic nominee after Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings left the race.
- Governor Ron DeSantis has not endorsed any GOP candidate and recently offered praise for Paul Renner without backing him, leaving elite signals present but not decisive in the closing weeks before the primary.
- Earlier heavy ad spending and campaign resources have shifted Donalds' operation toward general-election messaging and the narrow leads and undecided blocs in the poll suggest the November race could hinge on turnout and independent voters.