Overview
- Auction activity has weakened sharply, with combined capital-city clearance rates below 60% for six of the past eight weeks and many properties passing in at auction.
- Property data show stark city differences: Brisbane recorded one of the weakest preliminary clearance rates while Adelaide remained among the strongest.
- The federal budget removed negative gearing for established homes and replaced the 50% CGT discount with inflation indexing, moves CBA economists say are equivalent to a 90–155 basis point rise in investor upfront costs.
- Two major banks have told mortgage brokers to factor the budget changes into new investor loans, and estimates suggest investor borrowing capacity could fall by roughly 10–20%.
- Analysts diverge on the scale of the impact with some forecasting single-digit price falls this year while large banks predict weak growth but acknowledge heightened downside risk, which could worsen if sentiment keeps buyers sidelined.