Overview
- The Makerfield by‑election on 18 June is highly competitive with polls and local returns showing a tight contest between Labour’s Andy Burnham and Reform UK’s Rob Kenyon.
- Burnham has shifted his campaign to hyper‑local paid ads and tightly managed national appearances, with POLITICO reporting about £8,000 spent on Meta adverts in the final week to target voters on local issues.
- Restore Britain, led by Rupert Lowe, is polling as a potential spoiler and internal surveys show it could take double‑digit support from Reform, making right‑of‑centre vote splitting the key wildcard.
- A recent stabbing in Belfast has pushed immigration and public‑safety messages to the fore, with Reform using the incident to press its case and Burnham warning politicians not to stoke tensions.
- Downstairs in Labour, No.10 has signalled ministers would be expected to resign if they backed a Burnham leadership challenge, and political and market watchers say a Burnham win would raise questions about party direction and stability.