Overview
- Constituency polling in the final week before the June 18 by‑election puts Andy Burnham narrowly ahead, with survey estimates varying from the mid‑30s to mid‑40s and Restore Britain polling between about 7 and 13 percent.
- Restore Britain, founded by Rupert Lowe, is drawing measurable support from voters who might otherwise back Reform UK and is widely seen by pollsters as a potential spoiler that improves Labour’s chances under first‑past‑the‑post.
- Reform UK has publicly questioned the transparency and authenticity of some leaked or internal Labour polling that show Restore taking votes from Reform.
- If Burnham wins on June 18 he would return to the Commons and could attempt to secure the 81 Labour MP nominations needed to trigger a formal leadership contest, but a by‑election win alone would not remove Keir Starmer.
- The race remains within typical poll margins of error and more than one in ten voters are undecided, so late movement, local controversies and turnout will likely decide the result and any immediate political fallout.