Overview
- The Makerfield by-election is set for Thursday 18 June and polls show Andy Burnham with a clear lead of roughly 5 to 12 points over Reform UK and other rivals.
- Burnham is standing after a sitting Labour MP resigned to allow him to run and has said he would enter any internal Labour contest to replace Keir Starmer if he returns to Parliament.
- A wave of recent ministerial resignations has weakened Starmer’s authority inside the party and has increased pressure on colleagues to consider a succession if Labour loses confidence.
- Right‑wing forces such as Reform UK and Restore Britain present a strong yet divided challenge that could siphon protest votes, making local results less predictable despite Burnham’s popularity.
- If Burnham wins, expect an immediate scramble within Labour over next steps with potential candidates like Wes Streeting already positioned to launch or support a formal contest and party unity under strain.