Overview
- The Bureau of Meteorology declared El Niño active on Tuesday after Niño3.4 sea‑surface temperatures rose above the threshold and the 30‑day Southern Oscillation Index fell to deeply negative values.
- National and international forecast models now tilt toward a strong‑to‑very‑strong El Niño with around half of model runs among the highest since 1950 and some ensembles projecting peak Pacific warming above historical records.
- The bureau’s seasonal outlooks favour below‑median rainfall for much of southern and eastern Australia and above‑average temperatures, raising the risk of drought, earlier fire season pressure and stress on crops and livestock.
- Other agencies have already weakened India’s monsoon outlook and forecasters expect heavier rains in parts of the Americas, creating a mix of drought and flood risks that could disrupt harvests and food supplies.
- Scientists stress that peak intensity and local impacts remain uncertain because of a spring predictability barrier, so agencies are urging early contingency planning for water, agriculture, health and emergency services.