Overview
- Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will present the Union Budget on February 1, the final major statement before the new Income-tax Act takes effect on April 1.
- Taxpayer expectations center on targeted relief such as a higher standard deduction toward ₹1 lakh, clearer perquisite valuation for employer-provided EVs, restored home-loan interest relief under the new regime, and extended timelines for revised returns.
- Analysts anticipate continued high public investment, with capex guidance in the ₹11–12 lakh crore range and a fiscal deficit target near 4.3–4.4% of GDP to preserve discipline.
- CareEdge flags constrained fiscal space after FY26 gross tax collections rose only 3.3% in the first eight months and a full-year shortfall near ₹3 trillion, while projecting FY27 capex around ₹12.3 trillion and noting RBI dividends that may normalize next year.
- Crisil’s Dharmakirti Joshi cites a supportive growth and inflation backdrop but ongoing global uncertainty, and political watchers expect calibrated announcements with electoral messaging for poll-bound states.