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2mo ago

Brookings Says U.S. Net Migration Turned Negative in 2025 for First Time in Decades

Brookings attributes the downturn mainly to fewer arrivals under tightened immigration policies.

A U.S. Border Patrol vehicle conducts surveillance near the border wall between the United States and Mexico, as seen from Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, on Jan. 12, 2026.
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Overview

  • The think tank estimates 2025 net migration between minus 295,000 and minus 10,000, marking the first negative annual flow in at least 50 years.
  • Researchers say the primary driver was a sharp drop in new entries, including suspended humanitarian pathways and fewer temporary visas, with border paroles and notices to appear plunging to about 67,000–70,000 from roughly 1.41 million in 2024.
  • Brookings estimates 310,000–315,000 removals in 2025, far below the administration’s claim of more than 600,000, and notes most removals were initiated by CBP from the interior rather than by ICE.
  • The picture is contested as the Congressional Budget Office’s latest demographic estimate puts 2025 net migration near +400,000, reflecting methodological differences and heightened data uncertainty.
  • The report projects weaker labor-force growth and GDP, with consumer spending reduced by $60–$110 billion over 2025–26, and it expects very low or negative net migration in 2026 as expanded enforcement funding comes online.