Overview
- The Starmer government is pursuing targeted sectoral agreements and a youth mobility scheme to present at the July 22 EU summit after Brussels rejected a UK goods‑only single market proposal.
- Independent researchers and academic centres estimate the UK economy is about 4–8% smaller than it would have been without Brexit, with larger falls in business investment and weaker productivity.
- Companies report continuing trade frictions from customs paperwork, border checks and new certification rules that have raised costs for exporters and hit sectors such as autos, food and small manufacturers.
- Public polling released around the 10th anniversary shows growing frustration with Brexit and support for closer EU ties, while official data and studies record a sharp fall in EU‑origin workers and a rise in non‑EU migration that has strained care, hospitality and construction.
- Brexit remains the dominant political fault line: Labour’s manifesto red lines limit deeper reintegration, internal leadership uncertainty and the rise of Brexit‑aligned challengers increase pressure on any future deal and on the government’s legacy.