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Brent Tops $100, Global Yields Surge and ECB Hikes to 2.5%

Renewed U.S.–Iran strikes have pushed oil above $100 and forced markets to reprice the path for interest rates.

Overview

  • Brent crude rose above $100 per barrel after the biggest recent wave of U.S.–Iran strikes and attacks on ships near the Strait of Hormuz, adding a persistent premium to oil prices.
  • Global long-term government bond yields climbed to multi-year highs after the U.S. Treasury announced a $6 billion buyback of long-dated notes that traders said fell short of expectations.
  • The European Central Bank raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.5 percent, a move that markets view as the start of further tightening if inflation remains elevated.
  • Traders have pushed Fed funds futures to price roughly a 60 to 62 percent chance of a 25 basis-point Federal Reserve hike next week, and the yen has rallied toward the 153-per-dollar area on bets of faster Bank of Japan tightening.
  • Equities fell across Europe, Asia and the U.S. while energy stocks outperformed, and investors are watching U.S. producer and consumer inflation readings for signals about whether higher energy costs will force sustained rate rises.