Overview
- On Wednesday U.S. forces struck and destroyed five Iranian crude tankers and Iran said it attacked multiple ships and launched missiles toward Jordan, while Iran‑aligned Houthi militants struck Saudi energy facilities.
- Markets reacted immediately on Wednesday with Brent briefly above $100 a barrel and U.S. crude near $95, and major banks raised near‑term forecasts and warned Brent could move toward about $120 if attacks continue.
- Physical flows have plunged through the Strait of Hormuz from a prewar 8–9 million barrels per day to well below about 2 million bpd, forcing traders and producers to scramble for alternative routes and supplies.
- Higher crude is already pushing pump prices up and adding to inflationary pressure, which analysts say could lead central banks to keep interest rates higher for longer and squeeze household budgets.
- The shock to seaborne oil is compounded by damaged refineries, limits on other exporters and rising Chinese buying, so markets will hinge on whether shipping attacks persist or producers can restore flows via pipelines and alternate routes.