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Brazil’s Official Homicides Fall to Series Low in 2024

A surge in deaths recorded as violence with indeterminate cause plus a new probabilistic estimate indicate the real homicide toll is larger and unevenly spread across the country.

Overview

  • The Atlas da Violência released May 26, 2026, reports 42,590 official homicides in 2024, a national rate of 20.1 per 100,000 and the lowest level in the study’s series.
  • The health system recorded a record 17,207 violent deaths with indeterminate cause in 2024, and a probabilistic reclassification by Ipea and FBSP estimates 7,083 of those were likely uncounted homicides.
  • Including those ‘hidden’ homicides raises the estimated 2024 total to about 49,673 and the rate to roughly 23.4 per 100,000, substantially narrowing the apparent decline from 2023.
  • The burden of lethal violence remains highly unequal: people identified as Black accounted for 32,820 deaths in 2024 (77% of victims) at a rate of 27.3 per 100,000, 2.7 times the non‑Black rate.
  • Researchers say long‑term drivers of the drop include population aging, shifts in gang conflict and targeted local security measures, but deteriorating death‑classification and weak police‑health data sharing create statistical blind spots that hinder policy and accountability.