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Brazil’s Inflation Preview Cools to 0.44% in March but Exceeds Forecasts

The upside surprise points to stubborn price pressure even as headline inflation eases.

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Overview

  • IBGE’s IPCA-15 rose 0.44% in March after a 0.84% gain in February, putting the 12-month rate at 3.90%.
  • The print topped the median market call for a 0.29% rise, indicating a hotter month than economists expected.
  • Food at home led the increase with a 1.10% jump, as açaí, carioca beans, eggs, long-life milk, and meats rose, while ground coffee and fruit got cheaper.
  • Airfares climbed 5.94%, residential electricity rose 0.29% after tariff adjustments in Rio, and health-plan fees increased 0.49%, with all nine index groups posting gains.
  • IPCA-15 is a mid-month preview of Brazil’s official inflation and sits against a 3% target with a 1.5–4.5% band, while market projections still see year-end inflation near 4.17%.