Overview
- Two recent reputable surveys produce opposite, razor-thin outcomes in a potential Lula–Flávio Bolsonaro runoff, leaving the contest statistically tied.
- A BTG Pactual/Nexus simulated runoff shows Lula at 47% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 46% while its first-round scenario puts Lula at 42% and Bolsonaro at 37%.
- A separate Quaest poll commissioned by Globo gives Bolsonaro a narrow lead in a simulated runoff, illustrating how sample timing and a ±2-point margin of error can flip results.
- Investors have reacted to these short-term shifts because many view Flávio Bolsonaro as more market-friendly, and asset prices moved when his standing improved in earlier polls.
- If no candidate tops 50% of valid votes on Oct. 4, the top two advance to a runoff on Oct. 25, which makes the coming weeks’ voter movement decisive for both campaigns and for market expectations.