Brazil’s Economy Nearly Stalls in Q3 as GDP Grows 0.1%

Overview

• Official IBGE data show output up 0.1% from Q2 and 1.8% year over year, with prior quarters revised to 1.5% growth in Q1 and 0.3% in Q2.
• Services and household consumption barely advanced at 0.1%, while industry rose 0.8% on gains in extractive activities (+1.7%) and construction (+1.3%); agriculture increased 0.4%.
• External and public demand helped keep growth positive, with exports up 3.3%, government consumption up 1.3%, and investment up 0.9% in the quarter.
• The investment rate stood at about 17.3% of GDP, a level economists and industry groups deem low for sustaining faster growth.
• Analysts say the slowdown reinforces prospects of Selic cuts early next year, as markets noted dispersed Q3 forecasts but a median near 0.1%–0.2%, and exporters partly offset U.S. tariffs by redirecting sales to other markets.