Brazilians Report Modest Rise in Near‑Term Economic Optimism

Overview

• National polls in late June found roughly 36% of Brazilians now expect the economy to improve and the share of pessimists has fallen significantly compared with March.
• FGV’s consumer confidence index stayed about flat in June as a weaker expectations component was offset by a stronger reading of the present situation.
• CNI and CBIC data show construction firms raised their outlook for new projects hiring and purchases, with the construction expectations index climbing above the 50 mark.
• The CNI’s industrial survey recorded a fall in export expectations to 49.7 points after the USTR proposed new tariffs on some Brazilian products, and manufacturers trimmed investment and demand forecasts.
• Gains in optimism are concentrated among lower‑income and Lula supporters while higher‑income and higher‑education respondents remain more pessimistic, and analysts say labor market resilience, debt relief and interest‑rate moves will shape whether the trend lasts.