Brazilian SMEs Post Modest 3.6% Revenue Gain as Industry Surveys Signal Fragile Recovery

Overview

• Omie's IODE-PMEs showed a 3.6% year‑on‑year rise in real average turnover for small and medium enterprises in April, with services up 5.4% and industrial SMEs up 4.9%.
• The IODE-PMEs index is based on anonymized payment-flow data from over 170,000 firms with annual revenue up to R$50 million and reports real changes after deflating with the IGP-M.
• The Confederação Nacional da Indústria's Sondagem Industrial reported a sharp fall in industrial production for April, with the production-evolution index dropping to 46.7, which shows a clear gap between firm-level flows and broader industry surveys.
• Support for SME revenues came from a tighter labor market and firmer consumer confidence, with unemployment at 6.1% and early signs of monetary easing noted by analysts as a tailwind.
• Upside is limited by rising input and fuel prices driven by the Middle East conflict, high household indebtedness and delinquency, and policy moves such as debt-relief programs like Desenrola Brasil 2.0 will be key to sustaining consumption.