Brazilian Civil Society Urges Federal Action as Forecasts Point to Likely Strong El Niño

Overview

• A coalition of more than 70 groups led by Rede por Adaptação Antirracista and Observatório do Clima sent a letter to federal ministries on May 21–22 requesting urgent meetings, contingency plans and budget commitments.
• NOAA and integrated forecasting groups report a high probability of El Niño forming in 2026 with some models giving a meaningful chance of very‑strong intensity by late 2026 and early 2027.
• A 2025 peer‑reviewed study from UFRGS found El Niño can raise flood probability in the La Plata basin by up to 160 percent, underlining the South’s elevated risk of extreme river floods.
• State and municipal agencies and technical centers are already taking steps such as repairing drainage and planning relocations while Ceará’s Funceme warns of hotter, drier conditions that could worsen water stress and fire risk.
• The letter lists concrete measures—sirens and alert systems, evacuation plans co‑designed with residents, monitoring centers, new weather stations, an updated national adaptation plan and reserved funds—and says poor, Black, quilombola and Indigenous communities face the greatest harms if the federal government does not coordinate action.