Brazilian Banks Lift Credit Outlook for 2025–2026, See Gradual Cooldown Ahead
Banks cite directed lending as the catalyst under a restrictive rate environment.
Overview
- Banks now project total credit growth of 9.2% in 2025, up from 8.9% in November’s survey, and 8.2% in 2026, up from 7.9%.
- Directed credit led the upgrade, with 2025 growth revised to 10.9% and 2026 to 9.4%, offsetting softer expectations for free‑market lending.
- Most respondents (73.7%) expect the expansion to slow gradually next year rather than sharply.
- Delinquency is seen edging up, with the expected rate steady at 5.1% for 2025 and rising to 5.2% in 2026.
- Seventy percent of banks anticipate the first Selic cut in March, with the policy rate easing from 15% to about 13% by August, and 80% see a need for extra fiscal measures to meet the fiscal framework.