Brazil Weighs Firm-Level Beef Export Quotas as China’s Cap Bites

Overview

• Brasília is negotiating with Beijing over new safeguard rules that impose a 55% surcharge on beef shipped above country quotas, with Brazil’s 2026 duty-free limit set at about 1.106 million tonnes.
• The government is studying an internal allocation that would assign tariff-free volumes to each authorized slaughterhouse based on 2025 market share, with oversight via Decex and Siscomex and potential quarterly limits and automatic blocks once caps are reached.
• Use of unfilled quotas from other suppliers is under discussion after Chinese authorities signaled openness to reallocations, a move Brazil sees as a way to preserve shipments without the surcharge.
• Chinese officials have indicated quota compliance will be administered by importers, and Brazil still lacks clarity on whether roughly 250,000 tonnes already in transit count toward the 2026 ceiling.
• Sector data show Brazil exported about 1.68 million tonnes of beef to China in 2025 and revenue topped $8 billion, while January 2026 shipments rose 44.8% year over year despite the new quota regime.