Overview
- Markets pushed the Ibovespa back to about 174,000 points and the dollar fell to roughly R$5.168 on July 3 in a session marked by light trading because US markets were closed for the holiday.
- The move followed an IBGE report showing industrial production fell 0.2% in May and softer-than-expected US payrolls, which together raised the odds that the Central Bank could cut the Selic rate by 0.25 percentage point in August.
- Comments from Rogério Ceron, the Finance Ministry’s secretary-executive, that the Tesouro Nacional could intervene in the public bond market helped compress risk premia and lower futures yields during the session.
- Brazil posted a trade surplus of about US$9.8 billion for June even as data showed exports to the United States and Argentina fell in the first half of 2026, a mix that eases near-term inflation but can hurt exporters’ reais revenues.
- Traders and banks warn the rally is sensitive to fiscal decisions and election uncertainty, and reduced foreign-market liquidity can magnify short-term swings, so gains could reverse if fiscal or political signals deteriorate.