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3mo ago

Brazil Set for Record 2025/26 Grain Harvest, With IBGE Flagging a 2026 Pullback

Different reference frames at IBGE versus Conab account for the gap between their record-scale estimates.

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Brasil deve alcançar safra recorde de 346 milhões de toneladas em 2025
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Overview

  • Conab projects 353.1 million tonnes for the 2025/26 season, driven by a 2.6% expansion in planted area to 83.9 million hectares.
  • Production remains concentrated in the Centro-Sul, which accounts for 84.2% of national output, with the Centro-Oeste alone at 174.5 million tonnes.
  • IBGE’s December LSPA points to a record 346.1 million tonnes for calendar 2025, including 166.1 million tonnes of soybeans, a series high.
  • IBGE forecasts total output at 339.8 million tonnes in 2026, with expected declines in maize, sorghum, rice, cotton and wheat, while soy edges higher.
  • Conab reports maize area up 4% but output down 1.5% to 138.9 million tonnes due to weather-hit productivity, alongside projected exports of 41.5 million tonnes and domestic use rising to 90.56 million tonnes on stronger ethanol demand.