Brazil Says China-Bound Beef Could Halt Within Weeks as Quota Fills

Overview

• Brazil’s beef exporters association now expects 2026 exports to drop about 10% because of China’s new import limits.
• Processors warn they may stop producing for China between mid-May and June as the duty-free allowance runs out and the steep tariff takes effect.
• Chinese customs data show 510,000 tonnes from Brazil arrived in the first quarter, about 46% of the 1.1 million tonne quota, with trade estimates near 65% used by the end of April.
• Exporters plan to redirect part of the flow to the United States and other buyers, which could lift supply and ease record beef prices for consumers outside China.
• Brazil’s cattle market is already reacting, with live-cattle prices under pressure as traders prepare for a pause in China sales.