Brazil Posts $4.34 Billion January Trade Surplus, Second-Highest on Record for the Month

Overview

• Official data show exports at $25.15 billion, down 1% year over year, while imports fell 9.8% to $20.81 billion, trimming total trade by 5.1%.
• Sales to China rose 17.4% to $6.47 billion as shipments to the United States dropped 25.5% to $2.4 billion, leaving a $670 million bilateral deficit and marking a sixth monthly decline since the U.S. surtaxes.
• Crude oil exports reached 10.57 million tonnes, the highest volume in nearly three years, yet receipts fell 7.8% to $4.3 billion because of lower prices.
• The import contraction was led by intermediate goods, down about 15%, consistent with recent industrial cooling, and Secex’s Herlon Brandão expects softer import demand to persist in 2026 due to tight financial conditions.
• The Mdic projects a 2026 trade surplus between $70 billion and $90 billion, and exporters are watching an early‑March Lula–Trump meeting as a possible step toward easing remaining tariff barriers.