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Brazil Oil Push Faces New Licensing Hurdles as Poll Shows Majority Oppose Amazon Offshore Drilling

COP30 in Belém next month heightens pressure on Lula’s pledge to finance a green transition with new oil.

Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (L) talks to Petrobras President Magda Chambriard
Indigenous people take part in a demonstration during the auction of oil blocks near the mouth of the Amazon river
Brazil's Federal Court of Auditors (TCU) this year flagged "severe dysfunctions" with the distribution of royalties from oil revenues

Overview

  • Ibama issued a new technical opinion for block FZA-M-59 demanding fuller emergency and wildlife protection plans, leaving the drilling license decision pending.
  • Petrobras says it expects authorization soon after clearing a key environmental test, a reversal from the regulator’s 2023 denial.
  • A Datafolha survey commissioned by Ekō found 61% of Brazilians want Lula to prohibit exploration in the Margem Equatorial, rising to 73% among those aged 16 to 24.
  • Analysts caution that the IEA projects oil demand to decline after 2030 and estimate burning Block 59’s reserves could emit about 2.5 billion tonnes of CO₂ equivalent.
  • Brazil’s federal audit court reported severe flaws in royalty distribution, with 87% of revenues flowing to three states, intensifying questions over promised social gains.