Brazil Moves to Contain Fuel Surge as Lula Presses ICMS Cuts and Truckers Pause Strike Threat

Overview

• - Attacks tied to the Iran conflict have disrupted energy infrastructure and pushed Brent crude into the US$110–120 range, lifting diesel and gasoline costs in Brazil.
• - Brasília zeroed PIS/Cofins on diesel, created a subsidy to soften Petrobras’ recent R$0.38 per liter diesel adjustment, and issued MP 1.343/2026 to toughen enforcement of the freight-floor rules.
• - Law-enforcement and consumer agencies expanded crackdowns, with 1,192 stations inspected and 52 distributors fined in recent days, and officials warning that arrests may follow.
• - Truckers threatened a nationwide stoppage but voted not to strike for now, staying on alert as leaders prepare to meet the government on March 25 to assess the new measures.
• - Lula urged governors to cut ICMS with a federal cost-sharing offer, even as states signal resistance and economists say any ICMS holiday would trim inflation only modestly and temporarily.