Particle.news
Download on the App Store
103 ARTICLES
·
last mo.

Brazil Markets Swing as U.S. Inflation Tops Forecasts, Growth Misses

Hotter U.S. PCE readings revived rate uncertainty, curbing the lift from Brazil’s easing outlook.

Image
Image
Image
Image

Overview

  • Brazil’s Focus survey cut the 2026 IPCA forecast to 3.95%, placing expected inflation inside the 1.5%–4.5% target band.
  • Copom kept the Selic at 15% and signaled cuts could start in March if conditions allow, with B3 pricing showing a material chance of a 50 bp move.
  • The IBC‑Br fell 0.2% in December versus November and rose 2.5% in 2025, a milder retracement that initially lifted the real and the Ibovespa as DI rates edged higher along the curve.
  • U.S. data showed PCE inflation up 0.4% in December and 2.9% year over year, while Q4 GDP grew 1.4% annualized, pressuring Wall Street and pulling the Ibovespa lower during Friday’s session.
  • Rising U.S.–Iran tensions kept oil prices elevated after a sharp midweek jump of more than 4%, adding global inflation risk and influencing energy‑linked Brazilian shares.