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Brazil Jobless Rate Hits Series Low in 2025 as Services Hiring Lifts Wages

Analysts see a near-term cooling as temporary year-end hires unwind.

Overview

  • IBGE's PNAD survey shows unemployment at 5.6% for 2025 and 5.1% in the quarter to December, both series lows, with 5.5 million people unemployed.
  • Employment reached a record 103 million and labor underutilization fell to about 16.6 million, while the number of self‑employed rose to 26.1 million.
  • Real average earnings hit a record R$3,560 in 2025, up 5.7% year over year, supported by higher‑skilled service roles and a stronger minimum wage.
  • Job gains were concentrated in services and non‑durable retail less sensitive to credit costs, with Black Friday and year‑end demand lifting fourth‑quarter hiring.
  • Formal payroll data (Caged) recorded a December loss of 618,000 jobs, and economists warn that stagnant productivity could limit further labor‑market gains in 2026.