Brazil Eyes Record Grain Harvest as New Conab Forecast Tops 354 Million Tons

Overview

• Conab’s first 2025/26 survey pegs grain output at 354.71 million tonnes, with planted area up 3.3% to 84.4 million hectares and soybean at 177.6 million tonnes alongside total maize at 138.6 million tonnes.
• IBGE’s September report estimates the 2025 harvest at a record 341.9 million tonnes, up 16.8% from 2024, including 165.9 million tonnes of soy and 138.4 million tonnes of maize.
• Paraná’s summer corn planting reached 90% of the intended area as of Oct. 13, though recurring rains are delaying fertilization and could degrade grain quality if they continue, Deral reported.
• Conab projects Rio Grande do Sul could reach 40.9 million tonnes in 2025/26, signaling a strong recovery in soy and positioning the state for a record share of national output.
• A StoneX analyst sees potential for a record 178.7 million-ton soybean crop in 2025/26, noting that a confirmed La Niña may trim early-summer rains in the South and warrants close monitoring.