Overview
- The finance ministry says inventories reached 12 million carats at end‑December, nearly double the 6.5 million carat ceiling set by the government.
- Officials expect output to remain broadly unchanged until stockpiles are reduced to allowable levels, limiting scope to increase production.
- Mineral revenues are forecast at 10.3 billion pula in 2025/26 versus a long‑term average of 25.3 billion, with rough diamonds projected to fetch $99.3 per carat compared with $128.8 in 2024.
- The economy is projected to contract by almost 1% in 2025 after a 3% decline the previous year, and falling foreign reserves and government savings are further constraining fiscal space.
- A 15% U.S. tariff and higher duties in key markets such as India risk prolonging weak prices and squeezing margins, and Debswana temporarily halted production at some mines last year.