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Booking Delivers Big Q4 Beat as Shares Slide After Earnings, Morgan Stanley Turns Overweight

Investor skepticism over AI competition alongside EU rules is keeping the stock under pressure.

Overview

  • Booking reported Q4 revenue of $6.35 billion and adjusted EPS of $48.80, beating estimates, with room nights up 9%, gross bookings at $43 billion, and adjusted EBITDA up 19% to $2.2 billion.
  • The company said its Transformation Program has achieved about $550 million in annualized cost savings, reaching the high end of targets.
  • Strategic initiatives advanced in FY2025, with Connected Trip multi-vertical transactions rising in the high-20% range, flights gross bookings up 37% to $16.8 billion, and Merchant revenue growing 25.5%, outpacing Agency.
  • Shares have fallen roughly 9% since the earnings release and are down over the past year and year-to-date as investors weigh risks from agentic AI travel tools and potential EU regulatory pressure.
  • Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to Overweight with a $5,500 price target, while Citigroup trimmed its target to $6,250 but kept a Buy rating, and coverage highlighted broader analyst expectations for meaningful upside.