Overview
- Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology declared El Niño active on Tuesday and said most major models now show a strong-to-very-strong event that could intensify through late 2026.
- Operational ensembles including BOM’s ACCESS‑S and multi‑model systems such as NMME and ECMWF show rapid Niño3.4 warming with some runs projecting peak anomalies above 2°C and a subset exceeding about 3°C.
- Regional forecasts link the developing El Niño to below‑median winter and spring rainfall and warmer daytime temperatures for much of southern and eastern Australia, a higher chance of a weaker Indian monsoon, wetter conditions for parts of the Americas, and increased drought risk for many Pacific islands.
- Scientists stress substantial uncertainty because other climate drivers — for example the Indian Ocean Dipole and Southern Ocean patterns — and a warmer baseline climate can amplify or offset local effects, while recent gaps in monitoring reduce predictability.
- Forecasters warn the event could persist into 2027 and say governments, farmers and water managers should prepare for higher odds of crop losses, wildfire risk, strain on water supplies and disrupted food and energy systems as conditions evolve.