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BOJ Tankan Shows Steady Sentiment, Strong Capex Plans as Profit Outlook Softens

Anchored inflation reinforces a cautious path for BOJ normalization.

Overview

  • Large manufacturers’ index held at +15, the highest since December 2021, with firms expecting no change in March.
  • Large non-manufacturers slipped to +34 and foresee a further moderation to +28 by March.
  • Smaller firms improved, with small manufacturers at +6 and small non-manufacturers at +15, the best since March 2019.
  • Large companies plan FY2025/26 capital expenditure growth of 12.6% even as large manufacturers project a 7.8% drop in recurring profits.
  • Firms’ inflation expectations stayed at 2.4% over one-, three-, and five-year horizons, labor shortages persisted with an employment diffusion of −38, and companies see the dollar averaging around ¥147.