Overview
- Three Reuters sources say the central bank will keep guidance for further increases but make the pace contingent on lending, corporate financing conditions, and broader economic responses.
- Market pricing now reflects a move to 0.75% at the Dec. 18–19 meeting after Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled readiness to act.
- A 0.75% setting would mark a three‑decade high yet remain near the low end of the BOJ’s nominal neutral range around 1.0%–2.5%, with internal neutral‑rate updates unlikely to be published until next year.
- Policymakers plan to underscore that real borrowing costs are deeply negative because inflation has exceeded 2% for several years.
- A Reuters poll shows 90% of economists expect a December hike and most see at least 1.0% by next September, while heavy fiscal issuance has helped push long‑dated JGB yields to multi‑year highs.