Overview
- The Bank of Japan kept its short‑term policy rate at 0.5% in a 7–2 vote, with Tamura and Takata dissenting in favor of a hike to 0.75%.
- The policy statement reaffirmed that any further increases will occur only if economic and price trends track the bank’s projections, with real rates still deeply negative.
- Core CPI forecasts were left broadly unchanged at 2.7% for fiscal 2025, 1.8% for 2026, and 2.0% for 2027, alongside modest growth expectations.
- The yen weakened after the on‑hold decision as traders weighed the BOJ’s patience and the potential for exchange‑rate pass‑through to prices.
- Economists largely expect a move toward 0.75% by end‑March, with December frequently cited, though timing remains dependent on incoming data and coordination with the new government.