Overview
- Germany’s foreign intelligence service estimates Russia’s recent military outlays were up to 66% higher than reported due to costs booked outside the defense line.
- The agency puts 2025 military-related spending at roughly €240–250 billion, equal to about half of state expenditures and near 10% of GDP.
- The BND says the money supports both the war in Ukraine and expanded capabilities near NATO’s eastern borders, calling it a growing threat to Europe.
- Its year-by-year calculations show sharp increases after 2021: about €106 billion in 2022, €136 billion in 2023, and €202 billion in 2024.
- The 2025 total draws on official data through Q3 with Q4 estimated, while independent trackers such as SIPRI publish lower shares near 7% of GDP due to different definitions.