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BMW Cuts 2026 Guidance After China Sales Slide and Middle East Shock

The move forces accelerated cost cuts that will produce a one-time charge in the second half of 2026.

Overview

  • BMW announced late Tuesday that it expects a significant drop in group pre-tax profit, an automotive EBIT margin of 1–3 percent, and a slight fall in vehicle deliveries for 2026.
  • The company said a faster-than-expected collapse in China demand, especially for combustion-engine models, is the main driver of the downgrade.
  • BMW also cited higher energy costs and weaker consumer sentiment from the Iran-related conflict as added pressure on costs and sales.
  • Management will step up structural efficiency measures that will generate a one-time negative earnings hit in H2 2026 while keeping automotive free cash flow above €2.5 billion and existing shareholder return plans unchanged.
  • Shares fell sharply to multi-year lows after the warning and analysts have cut forecasts ahead of a Capital Markets Day in late September when BMW will reveal detailed restructuring plans.