Overview
- The BLS will fold October establishment data into Tuesday’s November employment release, but it cannot publish an October unemployment rate after the household survey was not conducted.
- October headline and core CPI will not be released, and Thursday’s November CPI will omit 1‑month changes wherever October series are missing.
- Employers continued submitting payroll responses electronically during the shutdown, enabling October nonfarm payroll estimates and allowing extended November collection and processing.
- Economists expect modest November payroll gains of roughly 40,000–50,000 with an unemployment rate near 4.4%, though forecasts carry extra uncertainty due to data gaps.
- Analysts caution that late‑month price collection could bias November CPI lower, and October payrolls were likely distorted by more than 150,000 federal buyouts plus widespread furloughs.