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BLS Cuts Year-Through-March U.S. Payrolls by 911,000 in Largest Revision of the Century

The preliminary update, the largest of this century, signals a softer labor backdrop, heightening expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut next week.

Overview

  • The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ preliminary annual revision removed 911,000 jobs from the April 2024–March 2025 tally, the biggest downward adjustment since at least 2002.
  • The steepest cuts hit leisure and hospitality (-176,000), professional and business services (-158,000), and retail (-126,000), with small gains in transportation and utilities.
  • The recalibration lowers implied average monthly job growth to roughly 76,000 from about 146,500 previously estimated.
  • Most reductions were concentrated in private-sector payrolls, while government employment was revised down by about 31,000.
  • The revision reinforced market expectations for a September 17 Fed rate cut, while the White House argued the update validates President Trump’s criticism of earlier BLS data following his July removal of the agency’s commissioner.