Overview
- Bitcoin traded near $68,800 as the broader market fell, with 85 of the top 100 tokens lower and privacy coins monero and zcash down about 10% and 8%.
- McGlone links the crypto downturn to U.S. market-cap-to-GDP near century highs and eight-year lows in 180-day volatility for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100.
- He outlines an initial 'normal reversion' that maps to roughly $56,000 for bitcoin using an S&P 500 level of 5,600, with a deeper slide to $10,000 contingent on a U.S. equity peak.
- He says the post-2008 'buy the dip' playbook may be failing as the 'crypto bubble' implodes, noting gold and silver are gaining and could transmit volatility to equities.
- Analyst Jason Fernandes disputes a collapse thesis, calling a move toward $10,000 a low-probability tail risk that would likely require a severe credit and liquidity shock.