Overview
- A McLaughlin & Associates survey commissioned by the Blakeman campaign and reported Sept. 8 finds Gov. Kathy Hochul ahead 49.6% to 45.7% among 800 likely voters interviewed Aug. 27–31, with 4.7% undecided.
- Hochul’s campaign publicly disputed the poll’s credibility, and the result differs sharply from an independent Siena College survey in early August that showed a roughly 10-point Hochul lead, so analysts urge caution in relying on any single late-stage poll.
- The McLaughlin memo highlights high negative ratings for Hochul, with 55% saying they view her unfavorably and 56% saying it is time for new leadership, but it also shows 30% of voters have little or no opinion of Blakeman, underscoring his name-recognition challenge.
- Polling shows a clear geographic divide: Hochul dominates New York City while Blakeman leads in the suburbs and upstate, meaning turnout levels outside the city will be decisive for either campaign.
- Hochul retains a large money advantage in July filings while pro-Blakeman Super PACs have increased spending and released rival polls, so watch late fundraising, suburban turnout and independent voters for signs the race is tightening or reverting to broader margins.