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BlackRock‑Led ETF Inflows Reverse Outflows but Recovery Remains Fragile

Weak U.S. spot demand with rising derivatives leverage raises the risk that recent ETF inflows will not hold.

Overview

  • U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs returned to net inflows totaling roughly $500 million across recent sessions, with BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust accounting for about $209 million on July 6 and $54 million on July 7.
  • The inflow streak follows a severe run of redemptions that removed about $8 billion from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs over roughly eight weeks, leaving funds and price vulnerable to renewed selling.
  • Key spot and on‑chain gauges still signal weak domestic buying, including a prolonged negative Coinbase premium, negative apparent demand readings, and rising Bitcoin balances on centralized exchanges.
  • Derivatives activity has climbed as the inflows returned, with 24‑hour futures volume near $79 billion, rising open interest and positive funding rates that increase the chance of a sharp reversal if spot buying fades.
  • Market watchers say the rebound will need repeated, broad‑based ETF purchases beyond IBIT plus visible spot‑market and on‑chain absorption to be considered durable because IBIT’s dominance concentrates flow risk.