Overview
- In mid‑August Ukrainian strikes damaged three major Novorossiysk terminals and several grain ships near Novorossiysk and Tuapse, stopping operations at NKHP, Demetra’s terminal and KSK and effectively freezing Russia’s deep‑water exports.
- Ukraine’s Odesa port hub had already ceased seaborne operations at the end of July, and exporters are now moving grain by rail, Danube river ports and road with sharply reduced capacity.
- Analysts and trade sources calculate that more than 97 percent of Azov–Black Sea export capacity is offline, leaving only a tiny facility in Tuapse with limited throughput.
- The export shutdown is driving up global wheat prices, prompting buyers in the Middle East, Africa and Asia to seek higher‑cost supplies and increasing the risk of spoilage and storage strain during harvest season.
- Rebuilding damaged terminals will take months to years, and Russia’s plan to reroute shipments via Baltic, Caspian or Far Eastern ports will raise transport time and costs, prolonging supply disruptions even if fighting eases.