Overview
- Bitwise submitted a preliminary SEC registration dated Feb. 17 for ETFs that would hold binary event contracts tied to outcomes in the 2028 U.S. presidential race and the 2026 congressional midterms.
- The proposed lineup includes separate funds for a Democratic or Republican presidential win in 2028 and for party control of the House and Senate in 2026.
- The ETFs would hold contracts that pay $1 if the specified outcome occurs and $0 if it does not, sourced from trading venues treated by the CFTC as swaps markets.
- GraniteShares and Roundhill have filed comparable election-linked ETF proposals, and none of the registrations have been declared effective by the SEC.
- Bitwise cites client demand and growing interest in prediction markets, while experts warn of high speculation, manipulation and insider-information risks, including the potential for steep losses if outcomes differ from forecasts.