Overview
- Matt Hougan’s memo argues Bitcoin could approach $1 million per coin if the global store‑of‑value market reaches about $121 trillion in roughly 10 years and Bitcoin captures around 17% of it.
- He estimates today’s store‑of‑value market at just under $38 trillion, with gold near $36 trillion and Bitcoin about $1.4 trillion, meaning BTC currently holds slightly under 4%.
- At current market size, Bitcoin would need to control more than half of the store‑of‑value category to hit $1 million, which is why the thesis relies on future market growth.
- Hougan cites U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, rising institutional allocations that some managers now model closer to 5% rather than 1%, participation by endowments and sovereign funds, and declining volatility as drivers of greater BTC share.
- He points to gold’s expansion from roughly $2.5 trillion in 2004 to nearly $40 trillion as precedent, while cautioning the outcome depends on adoption and macro conditions, with Bitcoin trading around $69,000–$70,000 at the time of publication.