Overview
- Matt Hougan of Bitwise argues Bitcoin could reach $1 million per coin if the store-of-value market grows to roughly $121 trillion within a decade and Bitcoin captures about 17% of it.
- His framework values Bitcoin by estimating the total store-of-value market, assigning Bitcoin a share, then dividing that value by the fixed 21 million-coin supply.
- Hougan estimates today’s store-of-value market at about $38–40 trillion, with gold near $36 trillion and Bitcoin around $1.4 trillion, leaving Bitcoin at slightly under 4% share.
- He cites gold’s expansion from roughly $2.5 trillion in 2004 to nearly $40 trillion and points to U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs and growing institutional allocations as catalysts for further share gains.
- Hougan cautions the outcome depends on market growth and adoption that may not materialize, noting Bitcoin trades near $70,000 and remains well below its prior peak.